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Until last week, a secretive fleet of ships ferrying Russian oil around the world showed no clear links to the Kremlin. That changed when, in a dramatic escalation, Russia used a fighter jet in an apparent effort to protect one of the tankers thought to be in the fleet. After the Estonian military contacted the Jaguar – an unflagged tanker sanctioned by the United Kingdom earlier this month – on May 13 in an attempt to carry out checks, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet flew past the ship, inside Estonian airspace, the Estonian Defense Forces said. The military eventually escorted the tanker out of Estonian waters. “This is something very new,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told reporters Thursday at a NATO meeting in Turkey. Russia has now “officially tied and connected itself” to the so-called shadow fleet, he added. Others agree. “This seems to be a step-change in Kremlin thinking,” Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based think tank, told CNN. Estimated to be hundreds of vessels strong, with no official ties to Russia, the “shadow fleet” includes many old, poorly maintained ships, which have in some instances wreaked environmental havoc and, according to some, have been implicated in damage to vital undersea cables off the Baltic coast. Russia has denied any role in the damage. The tankers, many with opaque ownership structures, transport Russian oil for export to avoid Western sanctions. As such, they have themselves become a focus of further sanctions on Moscow. On Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that a sanctioned ship belonging to the shadow fleet was caught performing “suspicious maneuvers” near an undersea power cable that runs between Poland and Sweden, before the Polish military intervened. Russia’s use, for the first time, of “military action” in response to economic sanctions “is a testament to the level of the threat that we’re facing on the eastern flank of NATO,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot told journalists at the meeting in Turkey. Video shot from the bridge of the Jaguar, which appears to have been edited, shows a radio call from Estonian authorities demanding the ship change course, with Estonian military ships and aircraft visible around the tanker. CNN has corroborated details of the footage, which was shared online by Margarita Simonyan, editor in chief of Russian state media outlet RT. Later in the video, a sole Russian Su-35 fighter jet sweeps ahead of the tanker, which was previously named the Argent, according to shipping records and the UK government. In response, Portuguese F-16 jets on a NATO mission in Estonia were rushed to the area to monitor the Russian aircraft, NATO said. The jets are part of a strengthened NATO presence in northern Europe since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. “Probably what the Kremlin is trying to do is push back on that, so in the hope that NATO nations get spooked by what happened (last Tuesday),” said Arnold at RUSI. “There will be those within NATO who are a bit worried about this and say, ‘Well, hang on, do we really want to risk starting a wider confrontation with Russia over one ship?’” ‘Reaction’ to larger NATO presence For the Estonians, the Russian jet’s intrusion into Estonian air space is proof that Western sanctions are biting. The incident “demonstrates that monitoring and sanctioning the shadow fleet is effective and that such efforts must be further intensified,” the Estonian Defense Forces said in a statement. CNN was not able to locate the registered owner of the Jaguar for comment. The Russian Ministry of Defense has declined to respond to CNN’s request for comment. The Kremlin has previously refused to respond to accusations that it uses a “shadow fleet.” In January, following repeated incidents in which ships caused damage to undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, NATO launched the “Baltic Sentry” initiative to bolster its military presence in the waters. “We see the (Tuesday) incident as a reaction to Baltic Sentry,” Col. Martin O’Donnell, a NATO spokesman, told CNN. “Russia’s destabilizing actions will not deter us from acting within international law to maintain maritime security, safety and freedom of navigation.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Friday that a new sanctions package could be adopted as early as Tuesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to join Russia’s talks with Ukraine in Turkey last week. Merz had said earlier that Russia’s “shadow fleet” – “permanently operating in the Baltic Sea with up to 300 ships” – would be specifically targeted in this package. In a possible tit-for-tat move, a Greek-owned oil tanker, Green Admire, was detained Sunday by Russia as it transited Russian waters on a route agreed by Estonia, Finland and Russia, Estonia’s foreign minister posted on X. CNN has reached out to the vessel’s owner and the Russian foreign ministry for comment. The Russian foreign ministry has not responded. Estonian authorities have conducted more than 450 checks on vessels in Tallinn-controlled waters in the Baltic Sea since last June, according to the country’s transport ministry. This includes the Gulf of Finland, one of the principal conduits for Russian overseas trade.
